Crop Progress Update

• Soybean conditions drop to 65% good/excellent, a 4% drop from the previous week and 3% below expectations.
• Corn conditions at 69% were down 2%, but in line with expectations.
• The corn ratings were still the highest for this time of year since 2016 while soybean ratings were in line with 2024.

Weekly Export Inspections Update
Export inspections for corn and soybeans were near the top end of estimates while wheat was above the top end of expectations.

Corn

Market Recap
Dec Corn futures ended at a one month high of 423’0 Tuesday, gaining 2’6. Across all maturities, 408,066 contracts were traded, with 246,406 done in the Dec maturity. Combined open interest rose by 10,489, or 0.73%, with Dec dropping 880 (0.10%) to 870,316.

Technicals (December)
December corn futures were lower early in yesterday’s trade but staged a nice reversal off of the 50-day moving average, to close at a new high for the move. In the overnight trade prices are quietly mixed. Higher lows and higher highs continues to be the trend. A break and close back below our pivot pocket from 414 3/4-416 1/2 would start to neutralize our short term bias. Upside objectives from here are little changed with the first target from here coming in from 430 1/4-432 3/4.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 430 1/4-432 3/4****
Pivot: 414 3/4-416 1/2
Support: 396 3/4-399***, 383-387**

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Oct 420 calls with 8,120 done and the Dec 395 puts with volume of 6,207. Calls with the greatest open interest are the Dec 450 strike (38,895), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (58,183).

Vol Update
Corn implied volatility was sharply up as CVL increased by 0.99 to finish at 20.54, a one week high. The 30-day historical volatility settled off 0.22% to 29.19%. The CVL Skew ended the session moderately lower, dropping 0.17 to close at 1.97.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 9.2.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds are net short 110,686 futures and options. That is about 34k less than the prior week. about 2/3rds of that came from short covering with the rest coming from new longs. This is the smallest net short position since May.

CHECK OUT THE CHARTS HERE:  Are corn futures gearing up for a bigger rally? - Blue Line Futures

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